I Can't Decide Whether to Call it SEE-air-UH or SEER-uh...

Today, Tango mentioned Matt Swartz and Eric Seidman's latest pitching metric, what they call Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average (SIERA). Anyway, I had some time on my hands and some intrigue my heart, so I thought I'd apply their nifty formula (below) to our beloved Cubs (2009 stats, plus Carlos Silva in the Google Doc). Here is their formula:

SIERA = 6.262 – 18.055*(SO/PA) + 11.292*(BB/PA) – 1.721*((GB-FB-PU)/PA) +10.169*((SO/PA)^2) – 7.069*(((GB-FB-PU)/PA)^2) + 9.561*(SO/PA)*((GB-FB-PU)/PA) – 4.027*(BB/PA)*((GB-FB-PU)/PA)

And here is why we like it:

1. Allows for the fact that a high ground-ball rate is more useful to pitchers who walk more batters, due to the potential that double plays wipe away runners.

2. Allows for the fact that a low fly-ball rate (and therefore, a low HR rate) is less useful to pitchers who strike out a lot of batters (e.g. Johan Santana's FIP tends to be higher than his ERA because the former treats all HR the same, even though Santana’s skill set portends this bombs allowed will usually be solo shots).

3. Allows for the fact that adding strikeouts is more useful when you don't strike out many guys to begin with, since more runners get stranded.

4. Allows for the fact that adding ground balls is more useful when you already allow a lot of ground balls because there are frequently runners on first.

5. Corrects for the fact that QERA used GB/BIP instead of GB/PA (e.g. Joel Pineiro is all contact, so increasing his ground-ball rate means more ground balls than if Oliver Perez had done it, given he's not a high contact guy).

6. Corrects for the fact that FIP and xFIP use IP as a denominator which means that luck on balls in play changes one's FIP.

Follow the jump as we examine how this relates to our beloved Cubbies.

Dear Cubs Fans, LET IT GO!

The argument I HATE, with a passion, is when certain Cub fans come up to me and say Steve Bartman blew the Cubs chances in 2003. As a studying economist and sabermetrician hobbyist, I know this isn't correct. But I need proof. Data. Analysis. Hard numbers. Ron Santo's hair piece.

So I embarked on a journey through the inter-web, trying to find some statistical measurements about that fateful October night and low and behold, I found it courtesy of Tom Tango from the Hardball Times. He had this to say about the Cubs collapse.

Basically, the Bartman incident only decreased the Cubs chances of winning by 3%. The odds were still HEAVILY in their favor with a whopping 92% at that point.

There we have it. Finally. Some sense to this nonsensical argument.

So please, Cubs fans that blame Bartman for 2003, Brangelina, Miley Cyrus, and the bailout, stop embarrassing yourselves and the rest of Cubs nation and LET IT GO.

Besides, you know you would've reached for that ball as well.


Something extra:
1)ESPN is doing a documentary on Steve Bartman for their "30 for 30" series titled "Catching Hell".
2)In July of 2005, Wayne Drehs of ESPN wrote an excellent piece about finding Steve Bartman...you can read it here.
3)And if you still aren't sold on this, allow me to tug on your heart strings; imagine your last game at Wrigley Field to watch your beloved Cubbies play ended like this.

The Rotation Outlook

As the precious glimmers of Spring Training approach, many Cubs fans are really getting anxious about our rotation. The top four (Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, and Wells) will be only three for the first month as Terrible Ted recoups from surgery. So that leaves an open 5th spot and a month-long vacant 4th spot. And frankly, this state of flux has produced a lot of hand-wringing. So let's examine this no-Lilly situation:

Starting Pitchers, last three xFIPs (recent to old):

Carlos Zambrano - 4.27, 4.45, 4.62
Ryan Dempster - 3.81, 3.74, 4.25
Randy Wells - 4.24, n/a, n/a

These are good numbers. The numbers we want from our rotation. Now let's look for these numbers among...

The Contenders, last three xFIPS:

Jeff Samardzija - 5.16, 4.34, n/a
Carlos Silva - 5.53, 4.64, 4.57
Sean Marshall - 3.82, 4.25, 4.56
Tom Gorzelanny - 3.74, 5.84, 4.82

Follow the jump as we take these numbers apart.

What's Going On, Internet?

First, this video (h/t The Book blog):



Dave Cameron breaks my heart today on Fangraphs, suggesting the Red will be "right in the thick of things come September."

Also, on THT, Jeremy Greenhouse muses about the linear weights and reliever WAR issues of late. This is very interesting debate in the sabermetric community right now, and I'm hoping we get some super WAR out of it in the end.

Meanwhile, Phil Burnbaum on Sabermetric Research looks at the Yankees payroll -- and like most people, does a double-take.

And keep an eye out as we prepare to release our Sabermetric Glossary. Hopefully it will provide a lot of assistance to those wondering about all the fancy acronyms, but don't understand (or care about) how they're produced.

An Exercise in Expectations

In my continued effort to spread statistical good-will among Chicago sports blogs, I recently completed a study on Another Cubs Blog concerning expectations based on a previous season’s success (or, more specifically, winning percentage). Check it out!

Here: An Exercise in Expectations

Update: Julie, over at a League of Her Own, muses about Mark Prior and shoulder pain. An excellent read.

And Baserunning Continues to Elude Us

Strolling through some articles from the most recent Cubs Convention, I found this:

"Piniella said Ryan Theriot and Kosuke Fukudome would be Nos. 1-2 in the lineup, and possibly vice-versa on occasion. Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez will follow, with either Soriano or Marlon Byrd hitting fifth...Jeff Baker will bat seventh, unless Mike Fontenot is playing second, with Geovany Soto eighth. The Cubs could have eight right-handed hitters in the lineup"(Chicago Tribune).

So our lineup (in general) is the following:

1)Theriot/Fukudome
2)Fukudome/Theriot
3)Lee
4)Ramirez
5)Byrd/Soriano
6)Soriano/Byrd
7)Baker (sometimes Fontenot)
8)Soto
9)Pitcher
a)Nady
b)Tracy(though I do not include him in my research)

The glaring missing piece is the lack of team speed and just flat-out good baserunning. Though this is NOT the same team from 2009, it is a team that lacks in baserunning skills:

Click here for the Google doc.

(For a summary of each runner, look at the far right column called "Net Gain". It combines BR Gain and SB Gain)

What we see from the Cubs is a difference of 128 Net Gain points v. the Phillies (the best in MLB in baserunning) and 59 Net Gain points v. the Cardinals (the best in baserunning in the NL Central).


What I expect from the Cubs in 2010 is well, much of the same. They may not be last in the league in baserunning statistics, but I think they will be included with the rest of the bottom feeders (Royals, Orioles, Astros, Braves, Pirates, White Sox [scratch that, at least they have Juan Pierre...d'oh!]).

Some other stuff:
1.)Jeremy Greenhouse of Baseball Analysts wrote an excellent article regarding baserunning which you can read here. It even includes animation!
2.)Our friends at Another Cubs Blog had this to say about why the Cubs well - suck at baserunning.

PECOTA's Projections, Picked Prospects, Sherlock's Sabermetrics, and a Pricey Perfect Game

The brain-trust at Baseball Prospectus has released and updated their PECOTA team projections, which sadly predict the Cubs finishing below .500 -- and below the Reds(!?). Maybe I'm severely underestimated the Cincy Red-Stockings, but I really think this is a fight between the recent contenders still (the Brewers, Cardinals, and Cubs). Thankfully, I'm not alone in my surprise -- Walkoff Walk presented similar complaints, though about the previous update. Maybe that's why BP puts the PECOTA standings under the "Fantasy" section?

Meanwhile, Keith Law of ESPN (Insider) continues his scouring of the minor leagues, this time, naming his Top 100 in prospects. The guys over at Another Cubs Blog do us the service of picking out the Cubs, and appropriately discussing them. It's a nice change to be a little excited about the minors again.

Additionally, Steve Slowinski at DRaysBay finds an interesting sabermetrician in the literary Sherlock Holmes. This is a great, logical read -- especially for some one just now breaking into the world of sabermetrics.

Lastly, the Big League Stew notes that 2K Sports is holding a contest with their next title, MLB 2K10, which features hunk-a-licious Evan Longoria on the cover. Apparently, the first player to pitch a perfect game get one million pictures of a green George Washington. Unfortunately, in order to be eligible for the prize, you have to play MLB 2K10, which -- like its predecessors -- will be replete with glitches, bad commentary, and -- most likely -- more glitches.