Fangraphs' Draft Review

Marc Hulet over at Fangraphs breaks down our big picks over the last three amateur drafts. Feel like getting depressed? Well, check it out here.

Frankly, it's not as bad as I make it sound. All teams are hit-and-miss when it comes to the draft. I heard someone once equate the MLB first-year draft to playing darts with a blindfold. Yeah, I think that's about right.

Still, here's the cliffnotes of our minors:

Potential
Great: Josh Vitters, (Starlin Castro, but he's not featured in the article)
Good: Andrew Cashner, Ryan Flaherty, Jay Jackson
We Can Only Pray for Ben Zobrist* II: The rest.

Again, maybe I'm being too hard, but the Cubs are a big market team, which for some reason means we must trade away any developed talent in the hopes of wins now.

*Yes, he was more valuable than Albert Pujols in 2009. Of course, Joe Mauer might have been more valuable, but who can quantify catchers' defense?

Granderson Gone for Good?

Today the Yankees, Tigers, and Diamondbacks executed a three way trade, sending (most importantly to Cub's fans) Curtis Granderson to the east coast. A few days ago, (the always impeccable) Harry over at Cubs F/X broke down the center field situation for the Cubs if/when they trade Milton Bradley. Basically, it's not good. Until today, the situation appeared thus:

Choice A: Get Granderson
Choice B: Enjoy Mediocrity

Frankly, if the Cubs want to get back to the Spinning Wheel of Chance we call the playoffs, then we can hardly waste a position on a replacement level player (which is what the majority of remaining options are).

The one silver lining in this whole trade, at least to me, is the increased potential of retaining Milton Bradley's services, whom I would prefer to return to the Cubs, an idea I have occasionally espoused here. However, as I write this, I am receiving rumors that Bradley may well be on his way out the door right now. Who knows, maybe we nab Granderson for Bradley in the craziest trade of the young winter?

The Price of a Win

Over at Fangraphs, Dave Cameron is reminding us how to use their dollar valuation statistic. And when Dave speaks, we listen. Ultimately the article can be summed in this:

Here is an example of how you should use the valuation. We have Chone Figgins’ 2009 value at $27.4 million, based on his +6.1 win season. No one is going to pay Figgins that much this winter, of course, nor should they. However, we can say that if the Angels wanted to replace what Figgins gave them last season, they should expect it to cost them about $27 million in free agent spending. Figgins produced at a very high level in 2009, creating a large surplus value for the Angels. The dollar to win valuation quantifies that surplus value, showing how much that performance would have cost if they could have expected to receive it and had to pay the going market rate for that performance.

That’s why we write that he was “worth” $27 million. It does not mean that we think the Angels should have paid him $27 million, or that they should pay him $27 million now, but he produced at a level equal to what you would expect if you had spent $27 million in free agency a year ago.

Derrek Lee...

R.J. Anderson from Fangraphs had this to say about Derrek Lee's 2009 season. Derrek Lee posted some great numbers which makes his 2008 season (where he hit into 27 double-plays) seem like an anomaly.

DLee becomes a free agent at the end of 2010. He'll also be 35. So should the Cubs move him while he's worth something?

Personally, I would like the Cubs to move him. And now might be the best time because his value might not ever be as high as it is right now. I'll miss him. But players come and go...

...and that's why I never buy jerseys with their names on them.
X4HE492ZNUUD

Player A or Player B?

Over at DRaysBay, RJ Anderson (my top man-crush not named Mark Wahlberg or Dave Cameron) illustrates, in beautiful words and numbers, my exact frustrations with the Milton Bradley debacle:

A Not-So Theoritical Theoritical

Also, the bloggers (Al from BCB and myself included) mix it up in the comments section. It's well worth a read.

Juking the stats...The John Grabow Edition

My favorite TV show (The Wire) had this saying that appeared in a couple seasons called "Juking the stats". Basically what this saying entailed [on the show] is that higher brass in the police department were classifying certain crimes as others or less severe so a)the overall crime rate went down as well as b)the murder rate went down. This was usually done out of response by pressure from the Mayor's office but, in season 4, we learn that the educational system is not immune to certain statistical deficiencies.

The following video is an interaction between two (2) teachers and how they're being told from, I assume, the Principal that they will only teach questions from the states standardized tests (which the state uses to measure the performance of the school).





(hence, "juking the stats")

The Cubs have done exactly this by relying on ERA as a significant measuring tool to resign Grabow.

What we see here is the same Cubs moves that continues to be made by personnel who cannot effectively evaluate talent. Dave Cameron from Fangraphs had this to say about the Cubs re-signing Grabow.

In my opinion Hendry continues to commit two crimes. The first being that he continues to use inferior stats to measure performance and does not adjust to the newer/more superior statistical measures (which is available to the public). This leads to his second crime, overpaying players based on these inferior stats. In my opinion, he needs to go. ASAP! But unfortunately I'm not the Ricketts family.

New owner or not, the Cubs go as Jim Hendry goes...

...and wherever you go, there you are.

Update: On his blog, JC Bradburry also gives the Grabow signing a frowny face.

Epic Fail: Part 1 - Juan Pierre

Epic fail is a series discussing and analyzing questionable decisions of management ranging from letting a player go after an above average producing year and/or failing to develop talent.

This is Part 1 - Juan Pierre

I remember a couple things about Juan Pierre. First, being in the 2003 postseason against the Cubs and how he was a scrappy player who could bunt - BUNT - for a hit by using his speed and then steal second base anytime he wanted. It seemed like he was always in scoring position. If the Marlins didn't have Juan Pierre, they don't win that series against the Cubs.

I always thought to myself "Where's OUR Juan Pierre"?

Fast forward to the 2005 off season, the Cubs traded three pitchers for Juan Pierre and I thought, "Awesome, just the guy we need. Great leadoff hitter, and great speed". And then I started to dream of post season success (that was my mistake).

But alas, it was not meant to be. Derek Lee suffered an injury and was out for most of the season and the Cubs tanked. They could not replace DLee's MVP caliber numbers from 2005.

And after 2006, Juan Pierre was gone along with our leadoff hitter (which has yet to be effectively filled in the lineup).